Louisville opens Big East play with win over South Florida

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/07/2009 - Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Earl Clark finished with 22 points and nine rebounds, as 23rd-ranked Louisville opened its Big East slate with a 71-57 win over South Florida.

Edgar Sosa added 12 points for the Cardinals (10-3, 1-0 Big East), who have won two in a row since a loss to UNLV on New Year's Eve. Louisville had opened Big East play with a loss in each of the past four seasons, but this season began league play with a road win.

However, the Cardinals did so against the only team in the Big East -- which has nine teams ranked in the AP Top 25 -- with a losing record. South Florida (5-8, 0-2) has lost four of its last five games overall, and two in a row, after opening its Big East schedule last Friday with a loss to Syracuse.

Dominique Jones had 11 points and five boards in the loss for the Bulls, while Augustus Gilchrist also chipped in 11 points.

The game was back-and-forth through the opening stages of the first half, and just before the midway point Gilchrist's jumper brought USF within 14-13. But Louisville went on a 14-2 run over the next four minutes, with Clark scoring nine of his team's points.

His three-pointer with 6 1/2 minutes to play put the Cardinals up 28-15, though the Bulls countered with six consecutive points and went into the intermission trailing just 32-26.

Several minutes into the second half, though, Clark's free throw capped a five-point burst that put Louisville up 37-27.

The Cardinals continued to lead by nearly 10 points, then used another run to widen their lead. After three free throws from Jones got USF within 49-41, Louisville went on a 12-2 run. Clark again ended the surge with a trey, giving the Cardinals a 61-43 advantage with just under six minutes to play, and they never led by less than 10 the rest of the way.

Game Notes

Louisville plays Villanova in Philadelphia on Saturday...USF travels to Chicago to play DePaul on Saturday.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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